- Hello Customer - Log in or Register!
Creeping protectionism is on the rise, according to some observers, but world goods trade is forecast to grow 4.7 percent in 2014. That’s more than double last year’s 2.1 percent rise, with stronger economic growth in developed countries expected to boost trade in every region, the World Trade Organization announced April 14.
“Downside risks to trade abound, but significant upside potential also exists, as the U.S. economy seems to be gaining momentum and the European Union appears to have turned a corner,” the WTO said in its semiannual trade forecast, which put global goods trade at an eye watering $18.8 trillion in 2013.
“At the same time, developing economies have slowed appreciably, for a variety of reasons both internal and external. Which of these forces is stronger may determine how world trade evolves over the next one to two years,” the report said. The United States and the 28 nations of the European Union are the world’s first- and second-largest importers, so the strength of their economies has a big effect on the other countries’ exports. The same is true for China and Japan, the third- and fourth-largest importers.
“For the last two years, trade growth has been sluggish. Looking ahead, if GDP forecasts hold true, we expect a broad-based but modest upturn in 2014 and further consolidation of this growth in 2015,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said.
The WTO has forecast that developed countries, including the United States and EU, will import 3.4 percent more goods in 2014 and developing countries like China and India will import 6.3 percent more. As for exports, the report said developed country exports will grow 3.6 percent this year and developing country exports will jump 6.4 percent--good news for the Obama Administration which has been working to substantially increase U.S. goods and services exports.
World trade is expected to grow 5.3 percent in 2015, which would match the average rate of growth for the past 20 years, the report said. But that still would be less than the 6 percent average in the 18 years before the 2008-09 global recession, the WTO said. In addition, a long-term tendency for world trade to grow at twice the rate of world economic output has faltered in the past couple of years.
“In 2012, trade growth fell to the same rate as GDP (gross domestic product), and they remained at matching rates in 2013, prompting analysts to question whether the previous relationship continued to hold,” the WTO said. “Structural factors,” such as the spread of global supply chains, the product composition of trade and subtle protectionism, may be the reason for the change.
The explanation also could be cyclical, which would suggest the 2-to-1 relationship between trade growth and GDP growth may reassert itself once the global recovery gains traction, but “it is too soon to say” whether that’s the case, the report said. The WTO said its trade forecasts were based on “consensus estimates” that world GDP will grow 3 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2015.
It also warned its projections could fall short if monetary policy in the United States and other developed countries causes more financial turmoil in developing countries.
Last year, market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would scale back its efforts to support economic growth “put pressure on emerging market currencies like India’s rupee, which suffered a depreciation of 14.5 percent between April and September,” the WTO said.
This year, better-than-expected growth in the United States could “provoke further instability in developing countries” by fueling expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected, the report said.
“This in turn could trigger further capital outflows from the developing world as investors seek improved returns in developed countries,” the WTO said. “However, the prospect of deflation in the euro area suggests that monetary policy in developed countries could as easily become looser rather than tighter.”
The WTO does not forecast trade in services such as travel, insurance and international banking. But it said the value of world commercial services exports rose 5.5 percent to $4.6 trillion last year. In one important category, China’s exports of financial services rose 52 percent to $3 billion in 2013, although the United States remained the top supplier with exports valued at an impressive $82 billion.
None of these projections take into account the effects of any mega free trade agreements that might be approved in the next year or two. Such agreements would likely address and reduce non-tariff barriers creating the conditions for more robust growth, at least among the participating nations. Like wise, we may also see a bump from the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, but not for at least two years and likely longer.
| Product Model | Inside Diameter | Outside Diameter | Thickness |
| LBBR5 bearing | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| LBBR4 bearing | 4 | 8 | 12 |