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The chief executive of global bearings maker Timken Co (TKR.N) feels "hopeful but cautious" about the sustainability of a U.S. economic recovery, whose shape is likely to resemble a Nike swoosh logo, CEO Jim Griffith said on Monday.
"We believe the recovery is real," Griffith told the Reuters Manufacturing and Transportation Summit. "We believe it's modest, and we're running the company on the basis that there will be a slow, gradual improvement in the economy.
"This recovery is going to look like the Nike swoosh," he said, referring to the athletic shoe maker's logo that gently curves upward from left to right.
Timken's plants are running between 40 and 60 percent of capacity and could ramp up production quickly. But while the company has brought back about 1,000 workers since the start of the year, it is not yet ready to make large investments that would "get us ahead of demand," Griffith said.
Timken reported much stronger than expected quarterly earnings last month and raised its full-year forecast, but many Wall Street analysts called its outlook conservative.
Such conservatism makes sense in an environment where corporate bosses have limited visibility, Griffith said. The year-old rebound could keep going at a moderate pace, or it might ramp up more quickly.
With a lead time of only eight weeks or so for Timken products, however, it is hard to forecast the second half of the year.
The recovery is much more pronounced in Asia, which accounts for about 12 percent of Timken global sales, which last year totaled $3.1 billion. Timken has said it expects to grow "disproportionately" outside the United States, which accounts for about 62 percent of company sales.
The Chinese government's strong role in the economy helps ease concerns about that country growing too quickly. Last quarter, it grew at an annual rate of about 12 percent.
"The thing that gives me some level of comfort with the Chinese economy is that the people in power in Beijing are worried about it overheating," Griffith said. "The Chinese government can simply give direction that they will stop spending in a sector and control it, and they have controlled
it amazingly well."
Asia's demand for bearings is growing at 8 percent a year and that region will account for half of the world bearing market by 2015, according to a company presentation.
Separately, Griffith said he was interested in expanding the company through acquisitions, now that tight financing has limited the ability of private equity players to compete for deals.
Timken's biggest deal in recent years was to buy bearings maker Torrington from Ingersoll-Rand (IR.N) for $840 million in cash and stock. Another deal of that approximate size would be "not out of the question," Griffith said.
"We are very interested in growing inorganically as well as organically. Our focus is on bolt-on acquisitions that add new capabilities, new products, and allow us to grow in attractive segments. For reasonable-sized acquisitions we could literally write a check."
| Product Model | Inside Diameter | Outside Diameter | Thickness |
| 6832-2RD KOYO | 160 | 200 | 20 |
| 6828-2RD KOYO | 140 | 175 | 18 |