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Date: 2016-08-12

Taking a New Look at Old Europe

Europe is back.  That was the message at a recent conference in Los Angeles, California, a state whose trade with Europe exceeds that with Asia.

Initially, the purported comeback was met with some skepticism.  After all isn't this the place with much no or negative growth, euro bailouts, double digit unemployment, austerity, possible deflation, and now a victory by right wing political parties threatening the entire Europe project?

Not to worry, we were told, growth has returned however modest, banks are in better shape, and woeful conditions in Southern Europe have at least stabilized. Yes, unemployment, especially among the young is unacceptably high, but we’re working on that too.

The election results are a concern and have received much of the press, but the so far mostly silent European majority is unlikely to support abandoning the Union or working against the proposed free trade agreement with the U.S.  When asked by a young audience member for advice on her plan to invest 50 percent of her retirement funds in European securities, Joao Vale de Almeida, the Ambassador of the EU to the U.S. told her:  "You should invest 75 percent."

The case for strengthening engagement with Europe is a persuasive one, especially for those who view the continent as a familiar but stodgy old relative.  As a market, it's big--28 countries with a population of 500 million.  Yes, they are aging but so is everyone else.  They are still making and consuming things, especially health care products from the U.S. If you view the EU and the U.S. together, it's 50 percent of world GDP.

Europeans like U.S. products.  In 2013, U.S. companies exported more than $750 million per day, more than to emerging markets of Brazil, India and China combined.

All aboard the gamblers’ express

Economic and other ties are deep and enduring.  Direct investment value is high and growing.  In Los Angeles in particular, Europeans are investing in clothing companies, entertainment real estate, and automobile design.  Rumor is that California will announce soon that a Spanish company has offered to build and operate the first leg of a high-speed railway line.  WPG got an advance look at plans that call for departures every 10 minutes from LA to Las Vegas.  Officials envision rollicking party trains to help pass the two-and-a half hour journey.

The fact that the Spanish private sector has and is willing to invest billions of Euros to build high speed rail in the U.S., whether or not it actually happens, (we're talking about California, where development projects are an adventure) is encouraging evidence that Europe is indeed back.

No one at the conference had the slightest doubt that the free trade agreement will be finalized and approved (in some) form, eventually.  The next round of negotiations in July will be difficult because the easy stuff has already been agreed to.  The remaining challenges involve technical standards and data privacy among others, which will be much harder to harmonize than it was to agree to eliminate most tariffs on most goods.

The many billions and perhaps up to a trillion dollars a year that an agreement could generate can focus and meld unlike minds more than any other possible benefit.  An agreement would also help preserve the EU at a time of the greatest challenge to its survival, something very mush in the interests of the U.S. since the European continents is where both World Wars began. 

And it will be an unmistakable signal to Russia that not only is Europe (including Ukraine) back; it’s determined to be bigger and better than ever.


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