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After two years of being battered by recession, the Timken Company, a producer of bearings and high-quality steel in Canton, Ohio, is beginning to stir.
In its cavernous plant in a quiet city an hour south of Cleveland, forklifts whiz back and forth, and men and women in bright yellow hard hats scurry to fill the growing level of new orders.
But as the plant begins to churn out more and more steel products, its work force will not grow. "We've seen modest increases in demand so far this year," said Joseph F. Toot Jr., the company's chairman. "We expect demand to increase even more next year. But, if we're successful at making gains in productivity, we wouldn't add people next year either."
As manufacturers work their way out of a recession that trimmed their profits and work forces, Timken is the rule, not the exception. Executives in industries from chemicals and machine tools to steel and paper say they have no plans to recall workers, even if demand for their products becomes more robust in a year or so.
Their corporate policies are reflected in the spurt in the nation's unemployment rate by three-tenths of a percentage point in June to 7.8 percent that the Labor Department reported on Friday, leading the Federal Reserve almost immediately to cut the interest rate it charges on loans to banks a half point to 3 percent in yet-another effort to stimulate the economy.
The White House has been counting on an economic recovery to help President Bush's re-election campaign, and across the country laid-off workers have been counting on a recovery to restore their jobs. In some ways the signs of recovery are abundant, although the pace appears to be gradual. From the Government's Index of Leading Indicators to the economic index of the nation's manufacturing purchasing managers, there are persistent messages proclaiming an economic upturn. Still, gains have not appeared in hiring practices of the nation's heavy manufacturers.
Unemployment is a stubborn, perhaps even intractable problem. The latest data included a shorter work week, lengthening spells of unemployment and more layoffs as the ranks of the unemployed rose 470,000 to a total just under 10 million people. Job Reductions Continuing
"We're seeing an attempt to improve productivity in manufacturing without making additions to the work force," said Andrew F. Brimmer, a former governor of the Federal Reserve and president of Brimmer & Company, a Washington-based economic consulting firm. "And so while the economy is expanding now, many companies are still reducing their work forces. It's not unique to manufacturing. You can see it in commerce and services as well as factory production."
Mr. Brimmer noted that employers were avoiding hiring to escape paying for benefits like health insurance and vacations. "Even as output has picked up in some industries, the chief response has been to increase hours, even paying overtime if necessary," he said.
One reason companies are able to produce more with fewer people, executives and economists say, is that the nation's heavy industries have so modernized their plants in the last decade, using computers and automated production lines, that many jobs have been made redundant.
At the Reynolds Metals Company, for example, nearly 5,000 jobs have been cut in a decade, many during the recent recession. "We will be able to manufacture more product with fewer people," said John R. McGill, the company's vice president of human resources. "Even if we see a sizable jump in demand, I don't see that it would affect the size of our work force." Workers Won't Be Recalled
Indeed, a monthly survey of the nation's manufacturers by Cahners Economics indicated that 59 percent of manufacturing companies surveyed said many jobs eliminated during the recession would not return because operations had become more productive.
Moreover, there is a worldwide overcapacity for many products as diverse as truck tires, polyethylene, aluminum and office paper that has led to intense price competition, lower profits and a reluctance to hire.
| Product Model | Inside Diameter | Outside Diameter | Thickness |
| 6306 NSK | 30 | 72 | 19 |
| 6206 NSK | 30 | 62 | 16 |