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UPS, the logistics giant, is warning of a slower U.S. domestic market going forward, and its stock took a hit. People with green eye shades are also looking at trade data worldwide, and finding additional cause for concern.
Europe is in a funk. China is in the doldrums, its stock market sinking until the central government scurried to the rescue by buying large chunks of shares, many of them issued by companies owned by the very same government.
Brightening the picture is progress on two trade agreements. One is the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, whose negotiators are busy hammering out some final details amidst swaying palm fronds on the Island of Maui. Any paradise is perdition for the poor negotiators who have been at this for years. They deserve all the mai tais they can gulp, accompanied by a blast from conch shells.
By most accounts an agreement is at hand, but wrangling continues over access to for cheese, milk and butter producers. Canada has threatened to bail over dairy, as angry farmers might turn on their prime minister just before election time.
We are assured through spokespersons that Japanese and U.S. negotiators are making good progress and are on the same page. But there are thousands of pages to the agreement, and it's unclear whether the Japanese have capitulated on the pages referencing the “sacred" items of rice, beef and pork. They've already made a separate deal with the Australians on the latter two items, which dilutes the sacredness claim. But regional agreements like this one up the ante by increasing the number of competitors clamoring to get in.
Assuming there are no last minute blowups that cause one or more countries to bail, we may finally see the fine details early in the fall. Congress and the other legislative bodies of countries party to the agreement will have time to review and debate. In the case of the U.S., Congress will vote on whether to approve the agreement as negotiated, since they gave the President Trade Promotion Authority. By the end of the year or early the next, you may start to ship to the countries with the buyer paying no or reduced duties--assuming the goods qualify under the rules of origin. Be prepared for the duty reductions, especially on certain agricultural goods, to be phased out more slowly than some have pushed. This is done so a broader deal can get done. The good news is that these duties will eventually be zero.
WTO to the rescue
A faster outcome will be the agreement on more than 200 technology products brokered by the WTO. It wasn't easy getting the Chinese, Taiwanese and Koreans on board, and some countries in the end elected not to participate, but the end result should stimulate sales of many high tech products and components due to lower prices.
For example, U.S. medical devices, some of which faced duty rates of more than 30 percent, should get a boost, especially in the China market where domestic device makers could threaten the U.S. share due to pricing differences. More jobs would be a nice side benefit of the deal, which now moves to the implementation phase expected to take a year. Computer systems must be programmed with the new information and customs officers trained. Stay tuned to WPG, as we will follow this story for you. Duties on lower value products will go zero immediately, for higher value goods duties will be phased out over several years.
Both these agreements and others in the pipeline are necessary to help even out the economic cycles that are part of our integrated world. There's more to be gained than lost by reducing inefficiencies and unnecessary costs in the global trading system. There are still far too many, and they are a drag on job growth and prosperity.
| Product Model | Inside Diameter | Outside Diameter | Thickness |
| NUKR72/3AS NTN | 24 | 72 | 30.5 |
| NUKR62/3AS NTN | 24 | 62 | 30.5 |