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Date: 2016-08-12

Brazil: Battered but Unbowed

They've lost a step or two in their samba, but don't despair for Brazilians and Brazil quite yet. The 2016 Olympics are underway, the first to be held in South America, and despite a lot of bad press, compounded by a government in disarray, the Games will probably turn out just fine.                                                       
Hopefully, it will provide a big boost to national pride, which needs one after a down economic year and scandals that led to the ouster of the president. Growth may be negative for 2017, before turning barely positive in 2018.  There will be bills to pay for the Olympics construction, which went way over budget like must do. But Brazil has lots going for it, and now's the time to head down there and meet some folks.
Brazil has lots of oil and gas, never mind that the state-owned oil monopoly Petrobas has made a hash of the business and generated enough geysers of scandals and criminal investigations to keep lawyers busy for years. The country is energy self sufficient and will have surplus to sell to its neighbors and other countries well into the future.  Business and government need to upgrade and innovate, which means lots of opportunities to license technology and sell management expertise.
Don’t mail it in
Trouble is you can't just drop into São Paulo and expect that business will fall into your lap. Brazil is a high-touch culture, measured in the closeness of personal relationships. It's obviously not impenetrable to outsiders and non-Portuguese speakers, but must involve insiders to be successful.  For this reason, websites and e-commerce platforms may be helpful channels to begin the process, but are not a replacement for meeting and getting to know one another.  Besides, there are more than 200 million Brazilians, so there are plenty of opportunities.
The value of the Brazilian currency has fallen and inflation is up, putting the squeeze on consumers and businesses that import things.  Still, the government intends to spend $65 billion over the next few years on infrastructure. The country is large and the roads, railways and airports need an upgrade.  There will be business for foreign companies, but having a local partner definitely helps.
Other sectors will continue buying from abroad and include IT, transportation, medical equipment, security equipment, and consumer goods. Services to help Brazilian companies become more efficient and competitive should also be appealing.  Services have one major advantage:  there are no tariffs or taxes, charges that easily double the cost of tangible goods to the buyer.
These added costs, coupled with lean economic times, probably make some U.S. goods uncompetitive.  All the more reason to carefully study the particular niche your product will fill.  There's plenty of free and inexpensive help available in Brazil from the U.S. Commerce Department, which has offices in four of the biggest cities.
So while things seem a bit downbeat at the moment, the music is playing, somewhere.  Brazil imports more from the U.S. than every other country except China.  That's unlikely to change anytime soon. ( Vivian )05 Aug,2016


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